Fragility of asymptotic agreement under Bayesian learning

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Fragility of asymptotic agreement under Bayesian learning

Under the assumption that individuals know the conditional distributions of signals given the payoff-relevant parameters, existing results conclude that as individuals observe infinitely many signals, their beliefs about the parameters will eventually merge. We first show that these results are fragile when individuals are uncertain about the signal distributions: given any such model, a vanishingly small individual uncertainty about the signal distributions can lead to a substantial (non-vanishing) amount of differences between the asymptotic beliefs. We then characterize the conditions under which a small amount of uncertainty leads only to a small amount of asymptotic disagreement. According to our characterization, this is the case if the uncertainty about the signal distributions is generated by a family with "rapidly-varying tails" (such as the normal or the exponential distributions). However, when this family has "regularly-varying tails" (such as the Pareto, the log-normal, and the t-distributions), a small amount of uncertainty leads to a substantial amount of asymptotic disagreement. Keywords: asymptotic disagreement, Bayesian learning, merging of opinions. JEL Classifications: C11, C72, D83.

Publish Date
Language
English
Pages
42

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Cover of: Fragility of asymptotic agreement under Bayesian learning
Fragility of asymptotic agreement under Bayesian learning
2008, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics
in English

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Edition Notes

"March 15, 2008."

Includes bibliographical references (p. 41-42).

Abstract in HTML and working paper for download in PDF available via World Wide Web at the Social Science Research Network.

Published in
Cambridge, MA
Series
Working paper series / Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics -- working paper 08-09, Working paper (Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Economics) -- no. 08-09.

The Physical Object

Pagination
42 p. ;
Number of pages
42

Edition Identifiers

Open Library
OL24643560M
Internet Archive
fragilityofasymp00acem
OCLC/WorldCat
253666834

Work Identifiers

Work ID
OL15727131W

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Internet Archive item record

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May 2, 2025 Edited by ImportBot import existing book
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May 7, 2011 Created by ImportBot initial import